Nobel Predictions

It’s economics Nobel prediction season. I don’t think I can beat the betting markets (which I guess would make Fama a good and a likely choice), so I’ll make a prediction based largely on my expressive preferences:

Alchian/Demsetz/Williamson for Theory of the Firm, Transaction Costs

I’m not picking Tullock/Krueger because I’m the sort of guy who derives utility from a sense of injustice, especially if I think it’s politically motivated. If I actually had money on the line, I’d be weighing up the relative likelihood of a behavioural finance or environmental econ prize.

3 Responses

  1. Alchian is dead and you have to be alive at the time to announcement to get the prize. Coase already got the prize for transactions costs.

    I’ll go with the theory of the firm idea but would bet on Williamson/Hart/Holmstrom.

  2. What? Alchian is alive, isn’t he?

  3. I have just done a quick check and it looks like you are right. I thought he died in 2005 but I think I got him mixed up with Jack Hirsheifer, who did die that year. So he’s back in the game, but I still wouldn’t put money on him.

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