It’s economics Nobel prediction season. I don’t think I can beat the betting markets (which I guess would make Fama a good and a likely choice), so I’ll make a prediction based largely on my expressive preferences:
Alchian/Demsetz/Williamson for Theory of the Firm, Transaction Costs
I’m not picking Tullock/Krueger because I’m the sort of guy who derives utility from a sense of injustice, especially if I think it’s politically motivated. If I actually had money on the line, I’d be weighing up the relative likelihood of a behavioural finance or environmental econ prize.